Australian horticulture faces trade shifts and rising costs

Trade is continuing to adjust to market uncertainty and volatility caused by U.S. tariffs. This is expected to increase competition across fruit markets, particularly as Southern Hemisphere exporters look to diversify away from the U.S. South Africa is moving closer to securing market access for stone fruit into China. While this may create additional competition, Australian exporters are expected to maintain a quality advantage over South African products, especially in the quality-sensitive Chinese market.

Australian onion exports for the year to date are at their lowest level since 2017. A difficult season for growers in both South Australia and Tasmania has reduced the volumes of both brown and red onions available for export. At the same time, increased export competition from India has further reduced onion shipments into Asia during the first half of the year. Nationally, average brown onion prices are at $1.40/kg, nine per cent higher than a year ago, while average red onion prices are 28 per cent higher year-on-year.

An unpredictable geopolitical environment, varied seasonal conditions, and changes in labour availability have contributed to greater price volatility across key horticultural inputs in recent months. Demand for urea has risen above earlier expectations, supported by improving seasonal conditions in South Australia and Victoria. Temporary water allocation markets remain substantially higher than a year ago, with water storages across the Southern Basin at just 63 per cent of capacity.

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