Brazilian farmers are preparing for the possible return of La Niña in the coming months. The phenomenon typically causes drought in the South, heavier-than-average rains in the North and Northeast, and irregular rainfall in the Southeast and Central-West regions.
According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 71 per cent chance of La Niña developing. It could form as early as October and last until February 2026. The most recent episode occurred between December 2024 and April 2025.
Meteorologist Gilvan Sampaio of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) said Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina are expected to be the hardest hit. While it is not yet confirmed whether a new drought will occur, rainfall is likely to be reduced. For growers in Rio Grande do Sul, the effects may be severe as the state continues to deal with the impact of past climate shocks.
The state's rural extension agency, EMATER, expects a slight reduction in planted area for the 2025/26 crop season, reflecting producers' concerns about dry weather. Agrometeorologist Marco Antônio dos Santos of Rural Clima said, "La Niña tends to cause dry spells in the South between December and early February. Since 2021/22, farmers in Rio Grande do Sul have faced loss after loss." Between 2021 and 2023, the state suffered three consecutive droughts linked to the phenomenon.
In other producing regions, the impact is expected to be limited. However, fruit crops in the South and Southeast could be affected. Eduardo Assad, researcher and professor at FGV Agro, said, "In São Paulo, citrus growers are already facing greening. If water shortages are coupled with higher temperatures, that could add another negative factor. La Niña may worsen the situation."
He also warned of potential effects on coffee, noting that water stress could disrupt the filling stage of beans. If temperatures rise above 35°C in Alta Mogiana or southern Minas Gerais, arabica blossoms are likely to abort, lowering productivity.
Source: Valor International