Record acreage in the EU, restrained planting in North America, and expanding exports from China, India, and Egypt are reshaping potato supply and demand in 2025.
World potato production reached about 383 million tons in 2023, with Asia accounting for more than half. Yields are increasing even where hectares remain stable or have contracted, intensifying market pressure. Surplus volumes are moving into frozen products, feed, or biogas, with processors in countries with supportive trade policies best positioned to absorb them.
In Europe, the EU-4 planted over 608,000 hectares in 2025, up 7% from 2024, creating record harvest projections, especially in Germany. At the same time, demand has been weak, with growers diverting potatoes into low-value outlets such as feed or compost. Export demand is constrained by higher freight and energy costs, while buyers in the Middle East increasingly source from Egypt and Asia. Processors are cautious, tightening contract conditions. Acreage reductions in 2026 appear likely if profitability remains under pressure.
Egypt has benefited from EU regulatory adjustments that eased inspection requirements, allowing smoother access for early-season potatoes. This window positions Egypt in both the EU and Russian markets. While logistics and quality consistency remain challenges, early harvest timing continues to provide export opportunities.
In Asia, China has emerged as a major frozen-fries exporter, surpassing its 2023 totals within the first ten months of 2024. Investments in processing and logistics have allowed China to offer lower-cost and faster shipments, particularly to Asia and the Middle East. India is also expanding rapidly, with frozen fries as the fastest-growing segment. Annual volumes are approaching 182,000 tons, supported by new processing plants in Gujarat and Punjab. Exports have diversified beyond the Middle East to markets including Brazil, Australia, and Southeast Asia.
North America has taken a more restrained approach, with acreage reductions in both the United States and Canada. Processors are focusing on profitability and tighter contracts. Export gains in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have been offset by declines in the Philippines and Malaysia, where Chinese and Indian competition is growing.
South Africa faces downward pressure on prices following large harvests, limited storage, and processing infrastructure. Egypt has continued to increase its frozen potato exports into Middle Eastern markets. New Zealand remains reliant on processed exports due to phytosanitary restrictions.
Climatic extremes continue to influence production, with European growers facing losses from heat, drought, and rain, raising storage risks and costs. Processors are emphasizing reliability and contract compliance over open-market sourcing, rewarding growers who can meet strict specifications.
The global potato trade is becoming more multipolar, with Europe and North America losing dominance as Asia and North Africa expand capacity and export share.
Source: Potato News Today