The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 6% to $1,913 per 40ft container, marking the 14th consecutive week of decline. After two weeks of moving in opposite directions, the major trade routes, Transpacific and Asia–Europe, are now aligned in a downwards trajectory, although each is moving at a different pace.
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Transpacific spot rates have started declining again, slipping back to levels last seen at the start of September. The spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles decreased 4% to $2,561 per 40ft container, while those from Shanghai to New York decreased 5% to $3,571 per 40ft container. Despite a brief uptick, the momentum from GRIs and blank sailings has now faded, which has led to a reduction in rates.
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Asia–Europe spot rates fell this week again, as rates declined 11% ($1,910/feu) on Shanghai–Rotterdam and 9% ($2,131/feu) on Shanghai–Genoa. This decline comes as carriers struggle to match increased capacity—due to new vessels entering the trade—with softening demand. As blank sailings increase ahead of China's Golden Week holidays, which begin on 1 October, Drewry expects rates to continue to decline in the upcoming weeks.
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Drewry's Container Forecaster expects the supply-demand balance to weaken again in 2H25, which will cause spot rates to contract. The volatility and timing of rate changes will depend on Trump's future tariffs and on capacity changes related to the introduction of US penalties on Chinese ships, which are uncertain.
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