Post forecasts Ukraine's walnut production at 100,500 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2025/26, similar to the previous estimate. Household production is declining as older trees are cut down, while industrial areas are also contracting due to limited investment during the Russia-Ukraine war and a shift to annual crops with quicker returns.
Exports in MY2024/25 were low due to quality issues linked to a lack of moisture. Current weather patterns suggest MY2025/26 could see similar problems. Exporters face pressure from global competitors, including the United States, which maintains high-quality standards.
Most walnuts in Ukraine are produced by households or small private farms. These growers generally do not apply fertilizers or chemicals and rely on manual labor for harvest and shelling. Quality is often unstable, placing these walnuts in the low-end segment for exports. Walnuts are sold to intermediaries or stored if demand is weak.
Post estimates household walnut area at 11,500 hectares (ha) in CY2025, compared with 12,100 ha in CY2023. Households account for about 80% of the bearing area, though yields are affected by a lack of irrigation in central and southern regions and cooler climates in the north.
SSSU reported commercial walnut planted area at 3,500 ha in CY2024, down 19% from the previous year, with bearing tree area at 2,300 ha, down 8%. Production was reported at 3,810 MT, a 25% increase year-on-year. Commercial orchards typically range from 20 to 50 ha, with irrigation systems and multiple varieties.
Profitability at the household level depends on whether members can shell walnuts by hand. In 2024, walnut halves sold for ten times the price of in-shell walnuts, and pieces at six times. Processing costs have risen due to higher labor costs since the war, while poor kernel quality from household production has reduced export demand.
Commercial growers have scaled down areas since 2019/20, partly due to orchard losses in occupied territories and labor shortages. Some producers abandoned non-bearing orchards for annual crops. Initial establishment costs range from US$1,200 to 1,800 per ha. Many growers are now investing in shelling and packing equipment to improve margins and avoid competition in the in-shell market. Some are moving into branded packaging and organic production to access higher-value markets.
Post projects MY2025/26 planted area at 14,900 ha, down 3% from the MY2024/25 estimate of 15,400 ha, due to the removal of non-productive trees. While the household area is declining, the enterprise bearing area is expected to rise slightly as young trees mature. NDVI data indicate below-average growing conditions, similar to MY2024/25.
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