Monte Nesbitt, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension pecan specialist and assistant professor in the Texas A&M Department of Horticultural Sciences, Bryan-College Station, has forecast the state's pecan crop at 32 million pounds. The figure places production near the middle of Texas' recent history. The record high was 91 million pounds in 1979, while the record low was 5 million pounds in 1951.
"This year would be considered average, maybe mediocre," Nesbitt said. "Some regions are looking at decent yields, but weather conditions created challenges for others, and crop losses are expected."
Regional conditions
Harvest is beginning, but the weather has driven differences in yields and quality across the state. Cooler, wetter conditions helped trees recover from drought and heat stress but also increased pressure from pecan scab, a fungal disease that reduces nut quality and yield.
In East Texas, abundant rainfall and moderate summer temperatures supported tree health but fueled scab. Nesbitt noted that even with fungicide applications, quality losses are expected, especially for smaller producers. "Scab is the No. 1 biological threat to pecans, and it was back in full force this year," he said.
Central Texas orchards faced spring frost, while many were in an "off year" of the alternate bearing cycle. Rainfall was better than in previous years of drought, but scab was more prevalent than usual. July flooding also caused damage in some areas.
In West Texas, early spring frost and late-spring hail reduced yields in some orchards, though otherwise conditions were conducive to good production.
Market outlook
Wholesale pecan prices have remained under pressure, lingering below US$2 per pound in recent years. "There's frustration across the industry," Nesbitt said. "Growers don't understand why prices are so low. It shouldn't be from oversupply since domestic production has not been really high. It's generally thought to be a mix of global trade factors and a reduction in the number of shellers."
Retail and direct-to-consumer sales are steady, supported by promotional efforts at various levels. Nesbitt noted there is optimism that new markets, such as India, could support exports, though wholesale prices remain a concern.
Research perspective
Nesbitt highlighted that scab-resistant varieties exist and remain a focus for researchers. "We're working to identify and develop trees that can hold up and produce good pecans with fewer inputs. That's the future for growers and homeowners alike."
Source: High Plains Journal