Turkey, the world's largest supplier of hazelnuts, has seen frost damage reduce the 2025 crop, leading to higher costs for confectionery producers. Hazelnuts are a key ingredient in spreads and chocolates such as Nutella and Ferrero Rocher.
The April frost, combined with ongoing climate pressures, pushed hazelnut prices up by more than 35%. At one stage, Turkish futures exceeded 200 lira (US$4.91, €4.22) per kilogram, with international forecasts reaching as high as US$10 per kilo.
Ferrero, which uses around a quarter of global hazelnut output, said: "The Ferrero Group diversifies sourcing from multiple origins worldwide and, thanks to its long-term strategy, Ferrero does not expect any supply disruptions for its products." The company produces Nutella, Ferrero Rocher, Kinder Bueno, and Mon Cheri, all of which contain hazelnuts.
Nutella consists mainly of sugar and palm oil, with hazelnuts making up about 13% of the recipe. Millions of jars are sold annually, meaning even small price increases influence production costs. Confectionery producers are assessing whether higher costs may lead to reformulation, smaller product sizes, or higher retail prices.
Estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) in June placed the 2025 crop at 520,000 metric tons, down from an initial forecast of 750,000 tons. This was later revised to 601,000 tons in-shell, according to the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council (INC), which cited data from the Black Sea Exporters' Association (KiB). The revision represents a 22% drop, with around 167,000 tons lost to frost.
Turkey had also carried over about 150,000 tons from the 2022 harvest, which has now been exhausted. Hazelnuts are harvested in late summer, with this year's harvest expected between August 10 and mid-September, according to the German confectioners' association BDSI.
Other producing countries, including Chile, Georgia, and the United States, are being considered as alternative sources, though they produce lower volumes. US hazelnuts, grown mainly in Oregon, differ in flavor, and establishing new orchards requires 5–7 years, limiting immediate expansion.
Market observers note that the delay in setting a base hazelnut price in Turkey contributed to speculation. The KiB traditionally announces a floor price at the start of harvest to stabilize expectations, but last year's delay led to uncertainty, price hikes, and farmers withholding stock.
The frost event highlights the sensitivity of hazelnuts to climate variability. Experts warn that unpredictable conditions such as spring frosts could affect not only hazelnuts but also other tree nuts, including almonds and walnuts.
Source: DW