Through the end of July 2025, U.S. handlers had sold 284.8 million pounds of the developing 2025 almond crop, 25% lower than the 379.0 million pounds sold by the same time in 2024.
The Almond Board of California (ABC) released its July position report on August 12, focusing on supply and demand for the end of the 2024/25 crop year. The July report also included updated commitments for the 2025/26 crop, with the new marketing year starting in August.
From crop years 2020/21 through 2024/25, the percentage sold of the USDA Objective Estimate by the end of July has ranged between 7.9% and 23.2%. The 284.8 million pounds committed this year represents 9.5% of the USDA Objective Estimate of 3.0 billion pounds.
On July 10, the USDA revised its earlier 2.8-billion-pound forecast up by 7% to 3.0 billion pounds. The higher estimate meant that, as of the end of June, the crop was further undersold at 3.72% of the revised figure.
July sales for the new crop often reflect changes in the crop size estimate. The 2023/24 crop year, the most recent instance of a midseason upward revision, was also the least sold as a percentage of the prevailing estimate at this stage. At the end of June 2023, commitments stood at 122.4 million pounds, or 4.9% of the estimated crop. By the end of July, commitments rose to 204.9 million pounds, with July adding 82.5 million pounds, 40.3% of the total for the season.
For 2025/26, end-June commitments were 111.5 million pounds, or 4.0% of the then 2.8-billion-pound estimate. In July, sellers added 173.4 million pounds, representing 61% of the 284.8 million pounds total. This is the largest July volume since 2020, when the Objective Estimate was also 3.0 billion pounds.
Including new sales of the 2024/25 crop, U.S. sellers committed a combined 273.6 million pounds in July. Market participants attribute part of this volume to a catch-up in trading activity after reduced transactions in May, June, and early July, while the industry awaited the crop estimate. They note that the strong July figures suggest that overall demand is holding steady.
Source: Mintec/Expana