California almond farmers and industry representatives have expressed doubts about the USDA's current 3-billion-pound objective forecast for the 2025 crop. It may take several months before the accuracy of this estimate is confirmed.
Some growers remain critical of the Almond Board of California (ABC), citing dissatisfaction with its role in supporting market prices. Almond prices, which had shown some recovery earlier this year, fell by as much as US$0.50 per pound following news of a potential 3-billion-pound crop.
Criticism of ABC is not new. In 2023, around 200 almond growers accused the board of misdirecting its efforts toward building global demand. ABC operates as a federal marketing order, a program designed under USDA Agricultural Marketing Service rules to help stabilize markets for agricultural products. By law, almond growers vote every five years on whether to continue funding the board. In December, over 90% of growers voted to renew it for another five years, exceeding the requirement that two-thirds of growers, representing at least two-thirds of production, must support continuance.
ABC does not set almond prices, which are determined by the market. Some industry representatives privately suggest that prices could be supported if handlers avoided undercutting each other when selling to buyers.
Questions remain over the accuracy of California's reported 1.38 million bearing acres of almonds. Not all acreage is being actively managed, with some orchards abandoned due to unprofitable returns. This presents potential pest management and public nuisance issues. If the bearing acreage figure is correct, an average yield of 2,174 pounds per acre would be needed to reach the 3-billion-pound forecast.
Growers report that such yields are achievable only if the acreage data is accurate. Anecdotal reports suggest lighter crops in some orchards, even from growers who have previously achieved yields of 4,000 pounds per acre. These observations raise questions about whether the current forecast can be met if high-yielding orchards are also producing below normal levels.
Source: FarmProgress