On August 12, the Almond Board of California (ABC) released the July edition of its position report, providing the final view of supply and demand for the 2024/25 crop year. U.S. almond shipments in July 2025 totalled 197 million pounds, 10% above the July 2024 figure.
Market participants surveyed by Expana had estimated an average of 190 million pounds shipped, with a range of 165–225 million pounds. Actual shipments fell within Expana's pre-report survey range for seven of the twelve months of the current marketing year.
Of the July total, domestic shipments accounted for 50 million pounds, down 5.6% year-on-year, while exports totalled 147 million pounds, up 16.4% year-on-year.
For the full crop year (August–July), total shipments reached 2,646 million pounds, 1.7% below the previous year. Export shipments were 11 million pounds higher (+0.6%), while domestic shipments fell by 57 million pounds (-8%) compared with the previous year, coming in below the prior three-year average and the ABC preseason forecast. Exports accounted for 75% of total demand, compared with 73% last year and a three-year average of 72%.
Key export destinations in June included India (45.9 million pounds), Germany (14.8 million pounds), Spain (12.1 million pounds), the Netherlands (8.4 million pounds), and the United Arab Emirates (6.4 million pounds).
For the full season, Southeast Asia shipments ended 25% higher than 2023/24 levels, India was up 6%, the Middle East up 5%, and Europe up 1%. Shipments to China/Hong Kong were down 52% and to North Africa down 22%.
New sales for the 2024/25 crop in July totalled 100 million pounds, up 43% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month. Domestic new sales were 7 million pounds, down 58% year-on-year and 72% month-on-month, while export new sales were 93 million pounds, up 75% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month.
Commitments (sold but not shipped) stood at 215 million pounds, 9% lower than last year. Uncommitted inventory was reported at 299 million pounds, 12% higher year-on-year.
On the supply side, 0.4 million pounds of new receipts were recorded in July, bringing the season's final total to 2,713 million pounds. Final inventory (carryover) was 515 million pounds, 12 million pounds more than last year but 35 million pounds below the ABC forecast. Final adjustments for loss and exemptions will be included in the August report, due in September, but are not expected to be substantial. Industry sources have noted that a carryover of 500–550 million pounds is considered sufficient to bridge the supply until the new harvest is ready for shipment.
Source: Mintec/Expana