U.S. almond prices experienced substantial volatility throughout the marketing year, which runs from August 1 to July 31. Prices began rising early in the season on reports that the ongoing harvest was falling short of expectations. This was followed by a period of stabilization through the end-of-year holidays as the industry awaited harvest receipt confirmations from the Almond Board of California's January position report, released on February 12.
By late February, buyers appeared to have accepted the sellers' position that production was below earlier estimates. Prices continued to climb through mid-May, supported by supply constraints and buyers accelerating purchases in anticipation of potential tariff increases on U.S. almonds.
© Mintec/Expana
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Market participants reported that demand began to cool in June. Summer trading activity was subdued, and prices started to soften. On July 10, two key data releases triggered a sharp decline—an updated position report confirmed weakening demand, and the USDA revised its 2025 crop estimate upward to 3.0 billion pounds, a 7% increase from the previous forecast.
Following the drop, prices stabilized and even began to firm again, reflecting the limited availability of old crop and buyers delaying purchases until after the crop estimate release. While the magnitude and timing of price changes varied across different almond products, all saw considerable swings over the past year. Price compression was notable, with typically lower-value products such as standard 5% almonds gaining more in relative terms than higher-value products like Nonpareil Extra.
As the new marketing year begins, market participants are expected to review historical patterns in pricing, buyer activity, and seller strategies. However, with the arrival of the new crop and shifting demand conditions, the market is set to write a new chapter.
Source: Mintec/Expana