Eastern Oregon's potato industry is monitoring the effects of recent tariff hikes, which have raised the average U.S. effective tariff rate to 18.6 per cent as of August 7, the highest since 1933, according to the Yale Budget Lab. The Trump administration began implementing the tariffs in early August against nearly 80 countries and the European Union.
Gary Roth, executive director of the Oregon Potato Commission, said more than half of Oregon's potatoes are exported. He noted growers have felt "little to no" immediate financial effects from the tariff increases on sales to processors and have not yet seen impacts on fertilizer and chemical purchases. However, he cautioned that the financial pressure may appear in the next planting season when inputs are purchased. "If the tariffs stay in place, I would anticipate that farmers will see increases in fertilizer cost," Roth said, adding that some equipment invoices already list new tariff line item charges.
State Representative Bobby Levy said fertilizer prices have become unsustainable for Eastern Oregon farmers. She cited Solution 32 fertilizer selling at about US$0.85 per pound, while a more sustainable level would be US$0.20–0.30 per pound. She added that processors in Morrow County have reported parts costs increasing by 5 to 15 per cent over the past year.
Economist Damon Runberg of Business Oregon warned that higher tariffs could encourage foreign buyers to shift sourcing to other countries. "What happens when we sever this relationship with certain export markets? How long … will it take for us to rebuild those relationships, especially when there are alternatives that other countries are producing?" he said.
Roth also pointed to rising competition from China. "China is coming in with an increased supply. They've had a very intentional plan to increase their potato production over the last five years, and they are now competing with U.S. exports head-to-head."
Processors are also preparing for cost impacts. Lamb Weston, which operates facilities in Hermiston and Boardman, told investors in July that tariff increases were expected to add about US$25 million in costs during its 2025/26 fiscal year, which runs from May 26, 2025, to May 31, 2026. A spokesperson later confirmed the company would update its outlook in its September 30 earnings call but declined to discuss mitigation measures. They noted most ingredients used are either sourced domestically or exempt from tariffs, though some oil imported from Asia may be affected.
The outlook for Oregon's potato industry remains uncertain as growers and processors prepare for the 2025/26 crop cycle, with economists warning of cost increases, tighter margins, and risks to long-term export relationships.
Source: East Oregonian