California's processing tomato crop is expected to reach high yields this season, raising the possibility that some fruit may go unharvested if dry weather continues and harvest proceeds on schedule.
Mike Montna, president and CEO of the California Tomato Growers Association, described the crop as bountiful. "We might end up disking some up, maybe not. We'll just have to see as the season plays out," he said.
© USDA
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported late last month that average yields have reached 55 tons per acre (123 t/ha), surpassing the previous record of 52.1 tons per acre (117 t/ha) set in 2018. Despite a 10% reduction in contracted acreage this year to 200,000 acres (80,937 ha), total production is forecast at 11 million tons, compared with 11.1 million tons from 221,800 acres (89,742 ha) last year. This projection is 7% higher than the USDA's May forecast and marks the lowest contracted acreage since 1975.
Montna said processors may accept some excess fruit if they can market it, but are generally obligated to contracted tonnage. Harvest began in early July and is expected to continue through mid- to late October.
Growers across the Sacramento Valley have reported higher-than-expected yields. Sutter County farmer David Richter contracted to deliver 55 tons per acre (123 t/ha) but has seen yields of 75 tons per acre (168 t/ha) in early fields, with reports of some farms reaching 80 tons per acre (179 t/ha). He added that extra tomatoes sell at reduced prices since canneries "really don't want them." Contracted base prices are set at US$109 per ton for conventional tomatoes and US$137 per ton for organic, compared with US$112.50 and US$145, respectively, last year.
Colusa County grower Mitchell Yerxa said other crops such as cucumbers, watermelon, and sunflowers have also benefited from favorable weather. He noted yields are up across the state, but cautioned that the season is not finished.
The industry continues to adjust to post-pandemic market conditions. After consumer demand spiked during COVID-19 and drove record plantings in 2023, contracted acres were cut this year to reduce inventories. In 2023, growers delivered more than 12.7 million tons at record prices of US$138 per ton for conventional and US$190 for organic.
Analyst Matt Woolf of Terrain reported that per-capita consumption of processed tomatoes in the U.S. has been declining since the 1990s, aside from pandemic years, and will likely continue downward. Fresno County grower Bret Ferguson noted that reduced demand from fast-food chains has further pressured sales, while high export costs and the strong U.S. dollar limit opportunities abroad.
Source: Ag Alert