The global potato market is undergoing change, particularly in frozen potato products. International trade in fries and other processed potato products increased sharply between 2019 and 2024. Fast-growing markets such as China and India evolved from net importers to net exporters of frozen processed potato products during this period. These and other developments are highlighted in the World Potato Map recently published by RaboResearch analysts.
Global exports of frozen potato products up
Frozen fries are no longer limited to traditional potato-consuming regions such as North America and north-western Europe. They have also gained popularity in other regions, including the Middle East and Asia. This has transformed the global potato market, especially in the processed segment.
Top importing countries of frozen potato products, 2019 and 2024
© Rabobank
Growing market and higher prices
Between 2019 and 2024, the export value of frozen potato products rose from US$7.7 billion to US$13.2 billion. "Both a growing market and higher prices drove the increase in export value, as the cost of growing and processing potatoes worldwide has increased significantly," says Cindy van Rijswick, Strategist for Fruit and Vegetables at RaboResearch. "This growth was also driven by increased imports in countries such as the US, UK, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and Spain."
Average monthly export price of frozen potato products, 2019-2025
© Rabobank
Large European potato crop
As potato processing expands across Europe, North America, and Asia, and as the geopolitical landscape has shifted considerably, the European industry faces the major challenge of continuing to find sufficient outlets for the rapidly growing supply of frozen processed products. Van Rijswick: "Especially this season, the situation is considerably different from the period central to the World Potato Map. The European potato harvest is large, which means low potato prices are on the horizon. In addition, import tariffs and unfavourable exchange rates have made it very difficult to export potato products to the US market, while that market is normally a big buyer."
Emerging market growth
China and India have shifted from net importers to net exporters of frozen processed potato products, strengthening their competitive position. With impressive growth rates, both countries have expanded domestic processing capacity to serve local as well as regional markets.
China continues to grow
China's potato processing industry achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79% between 2019 and 2024, while India and Egypt followed with CAGRs of 45% and 16%, respectively. RaboResearch expects these emerging players to continue expanding their processing capacity and export volumes, benefiting from rising demand in the Middle East and Asia.
Consumption of potatoes and potato products, 2024
© Rabobank
Global trends in potato production: Mixed picture
In 2024, global potato production was estimated at 372 million tonnes, with China and India leading the way. Van Rijswick: "While these countries continue to expand their share, production in the European Union and the United States is hardly growing when looking at the longer term. Especially the relatively high average yields per hectare are under pressure."
Impact of inflation
"Rising costs have affected every player in the global potato chain, from growers to processors to consumers," says Van Rijswick. "Prices of seed potatoes, raw potatoes, energy, and other inputs have driven up production, processing, storage, and distribution costs. The potato market is navigating turbulent waters, but demand for processed products remains strong."
Dutch position under pressure
The Netherlands accounts for about half of global seed potato exports, making it the world leader. However, maintaining this position is becoming increasingly challenging due to climate change and regulations on crop protection and water quality.
Source: Rabobank