Shipments of U.S. orange juice to Canada fell in June to their lowest level in more than two decades, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau data. Industry representatives attribute the decline to reduced supply, changing consumption patterns, and ongoing trade measures.
Michael Graydon, CEO of Food, Health and Consumer Products of Canada, said, "It hasn't been just one single cause. It's kind of a collision of tight global supply, changing consumer preferences, and more recently, the tariff overhang in North America."
Florida, historically the main supplier of fresh juice, has experienced a 92% reduction in production since 2005 due to citrus greening, blight, and storm damage. Graydon noted that output this year alone is down by more than a third compared with 2024. Canada has turned to Brazil, but adverse weather and disease there have also limited exports.
With supply constrained, Canadian per capita consumption has dropped as prices rise and consumer preferences shift away from higher-sugar beverages. Tariffs have added further pressure. Ottawa's 25% duty on unfrozen Florida orange juice remains in place, part of retaliatory measures linked to U.S. trade policy.
Graydon said the tariff impact is disproportionately felt in Canada. "You can't take an economy that's 10 per cent of the U.S. economy and expect our retaliatory tariffs to have any impact," he said. He added that while Kentucky bourbon faced some disruption in the U.S., most of the effects are raising Canadian food costs.
Imports from alternative sources, such as Spain, are possible but face high transport costs. Both Florida and Brazil are prioritizing domestic demand, further limiting Canadian supply. As a result, traders report higher prices and fewer retail promotions.
Consumers are also moving toward cheaper alternatives, such as shelf-stable blends, but Graydon said this trend reduces choice. "Supply isn't just constrained. It's complex and prices are heading further upward, unless the trade environment stabilizes," he said.
According to Eric Wickham, who worked on the Hoser Grocery Tracker project, Canadian shoppers are adjusting their purchases. "Canadians have tended to vote with their wallet in the past," he said, referencing the 2024 boycott of Loblaw over food pricing.
Statistics Canada reported that the average retail price of two liters of orange juice in June 2025 was about US$2.25, only 30 cents higher than in June 2024. However, Wickham said supply chain costs tied to tariffs eventually affect consumer prices.
Loblaw's July Food Inflation Report showed Canadian food prices in June rose 2.8% year-on-year, outpacing general inflation. It noted that one-third of inflationary cost increases submitted by suppliers were directly linked to tariffs.
Source: CTV News