On July 14, the Trump administration terminated the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement, which had governed Mexican tomato exports to the United States since 1996. The agreement set floor prices for Mexican tomatoes entering the U.S. market and was renegotiated four times under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
The original agreement suspended an antidumping investigation against Mexican exporters accused of selling tomatoes below fair market value. In return, exporters agreed not to sell below minimum reference prices for different tomato types, including organic and conventional. With termination, the U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed an antidumping duty of 17.1 percent on Mexican tomato imports, the rate established in 1996.
U.S. growers have long been divided over the agreement. Southeastern growers, represented by the Florida Tomato Exchange, argued that Mexican imports undermined domestic production, particularly of round and beefsteak tomatoes. Florida employs about 30,000 seasonal workers in its tomato sector, many under the H2-A visa program. Western growers and importers, represented by the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, supported the agreement, noting that imports from Mexico created nearly 25,000 direct jobs in the U.S.. Western firms are integrated with Mexican suppliers and supply Roma, grape, and cherry tomatoes.
In 2024, Mexico exported 4.4 billion pounds of fresh tomatoes to the U.S., valued at US$3.1 billion, accounting for 90 percent of U.S. tomato imports. Mexican production relies heavily on labor flows across the border, with workers employed seasonally in both countries.
The decision to end the agreement drew support from Florida's congressional delegation and opposition from western stakeholders, industry associations, and chambers of commerce. Opponents argued that termination could increase costs for consumers and disrupt the supply of specialty tomatoes.
Mexico sought to negotiate an extension before termination, with its Secretaries of Economy and Agriculture calling the decision "unfair and contrary to the interests of Mexican producers and U.S. industry." President Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico would continue exporting, even with tariffs, due to the absence of substitutes. On August 8, Mexico introduced a minimum export price for tomatoes to stabilize the market and protect domestic producers.
Tomato prices in the U.S. have remained steady since termination, according to the USDA. The longer-term impact will become clearer later in the year when Mexican exports increase. Analysts differ on whether consumers will face lower prices due to reduced floor prices or higher prices if supply falls. Labor shortages remain a constraint in the U.S., where fewer than 60 percent of crop workers are authorized. Industry dependence on seasonal migrant labor continues to limit domestic expansion.
Source: CSIS