As the August 7 tariffs take effect, analysts continue to review their impact on North Carolina's agricultural trade with Mexico. While Mexico was not included in the August 7 measures, a 25% tariff was imposed on Mexican goods on March 4 by President Donald Trump. Potash, used in fertilizers, was an exception and received a lower tariff of 10%.
Mexico has become the leading export destination for U.S. agricultural products. In 2024, US exports to Mexico exceeded US$30 billion, supporting an estimated 190,000 jobs, according to USDA data. Agricultural trade between the U.S. and Mexico under the USMCA reached nearly US$79 billion that year, continuing growth over the last decade.
For North Carolina, agricultural imports from Mexico increased by 122% between 2014 and 2024, rising from US$45.4 million to US$100.8 million, according to the North Carolina Department of Agriculture & Consumer Services (NCDA&CS). The top three import categories in 2024 were cigars and cigarettes made of tobacco or substitutes, edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers, and prepared cereals, flours, starches, or milk products, including baked goods.
During the same period, exports from North Carolina to Mexico showed limited growth. In 2014, exports totaled US$224 million, increasing to US$241.3 million in 2024, a gain of just 8%. According to NCDA&CS, the leading exports included miscellaneous edible preparations, unmanufactured tobacco and tobacco refuse, and manufactured tobacco products.
Joseph Harris, fiscal policy analyst for the John Locke Foundation, explained, "Yet despite imports growing much faster than exports, exports are still more than double the value of imports, driven mainly by miscellaneous edible preparations, unmanufactured tobacco, and processed tobacco products."
Harris noted that imports from Mexico have accelerated this year. "Through May 2025, agricultural imports from Mexico totaled US$76.6 million, more than double the US$35.8 million recorded by May 2024. Much of this year-to-date surge likely reflects importers front-loading orders in anticipation of the tariffs taking effect."
According to the USDA, growth in U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico is supported by rising disposable incomes among Mexico's upper-middle class, recognition of U.S. food brands, and demand for premium agricultural products.
Steve Troxler, commissioner of NCDA&CS, said in an earlier interview, "Mexico is a long-valued trading partner with the United States, and I don't see that changing."
Source: Carolina Journal