Bananas, long a staple in supermarkets worldwide, are facing supply pressures linked to climate change and plant disease. Rising temperatures and humidity are increasing the exposure of banana crops to pathogens, with growers already reporting challenges in key regions.
"This has been going on for many, many years," said Mohammad Abu-Ghazaleh, chairman and CEO of Fresh Del Monte. "It hasn't happened overnight."
Two well-known diseases, Black Sigatoka and Tropical Race 4, are now present in major production zones, including Colombia and Peru. Abu-Ghazaleh noted that the spread of these diseases will accelerate in the coming decades. "It will take about two or three decades for supply chains to be majorly disrupted, unless there is some solution to the diseases that are overtaking the plantations in many parts of the world," he said.
The banana industry employs more than one million people globally and could be heavily affected by climate-related shifts. A study published in Nature Food in March projected that rising temperatures combined with socio-economic pressures, such as limited access to export markets and government subsidies, could reduce suitable growing areas in Latin America and the Caribbean by up to 60%. These regions currently supply around 80% of the world's banana exports.
Bananas are the fourth most important food crop worldwide. More than 400 million people rely on them for 15% to 27% of their daily caloric intake. However, bananas are not the only crop at risk. Corn, soybeans, rice, and wheat are also projected to face yield reductions as hotter days impact crop development.
"Very hot days, even for small amounts of time during the entire growing season, can cause large losses in the yield you get from a given plot of land at the end of the growing season," explained Andrew Hultgren, assistant professor of agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.
Mitigation measures remain central to securing long-term supply. "Mitigation of warming, mitigation of our fossil fuel consumption, is probably one of the most effective things we can do to protect the future of global agriculture," Hultgren said.
The impact of a shortage will likely be seen in prices rather than availability. "If there's just less [bananas] being produced, that means prices are higher, and that to consumers is going to feel like inflation," Hultgren said. Banana prices rose 3.3% in May following new US tariffs.
Despite this, Abu-Ghazaleh expects bananas to remain the most affordable fruit option. "I think that even over the next decade or so, the banana will still be the cheapest fruit on the shelf," he said. "The consumer will still have the opportunity to enjoy a very affordable fruit compared to any other."
Source: Time