The global lemon market is entering a period of constrained supply, higher prices, and uncertainty. In Spain, the Murcia region, the main lemon-producing area in Europe, has started harvesting, with forecasts pointing to a smaller crop than last season. Estimates vary between a 15–20% reduction and as much as 40%. This shortfall could create volatility in supply planning and potential shortages from late December through February. Prices at origin are already well above last year's levels, with further increases expected during the campaign.
South African lemons remain available in Europe, but stocks are expected to run down quickly, leaving the market increasingly reliant on Spain's reduced crop.
Global supply remains tight. Argentina shipped more lemons to Europe earlier in the year, lowering availability for the US market. Chile was unable to compensate for the gap. Mexico has now started harvesting, but heavy rainfall has led to smaller calibres and a predominance of Choice-grade fruit, limiting marketable supply. California will begin its season next month, which may ease some pressure, though elevated prices are likely to continue and could support stronger returns for domestic growers.
Overall, the lemon sector is entering a season shaped by reduced production, continued high prices, and trade and logistical challenges. Importers, retailers, and foodservice operators are advised to expect volatility, plan procurement early, and allocate volumes carefully to avoid shortages during peak winter demand.
Trade measures have added to uncertainty. Citrus imports from Peru, Chile, and Uruguay faced a 10% tariff, while South African citrus was subject to a 30% tariff beginning August 8. This led to accelerated shipments before the deadline, creating a temporary oversupply followed by reduced arrivals. Inventories are expected to stabilise later in the season. These tariff shifts are likely to influence import planning and pricing into 2026.
In the wider citrus market, supply imbalances are evident. Smaller oranges are seeing stronger demand and tighter availability, while larger fruit moves more slowly. Early-season clementine quality issues briefly impacted consumer confidence, though subsequent consignments have improved.
Source: Mintec/Expana