On September 10, Fundecitrus, the association representing the Brazilian citrus industry, released its updated forecast for the 2025/26 orange harvest. The total crop in the São Paulo and Minas Gerais citrus belt, Brazil's main producing region, is now projected at 306.74 million boxes. This is 2.5 per cent lower than the May forecast of 314.6 million boxes.
The downward revision reflects a higher expected incidence of greening disease and a later harvest. Fundecitrus now estimates a fruit drop rate of 22 per cent compared with the 20 per cent forecast in May. The association attributed this to a higher prevalence of greening than previously projected.
The annual survey by Fundecitrus reported average greening severity in the citrus belt at 22.7 per cent in 2025, up from 19 per cent in 2024. According to Juliano Ayers, executive director of Fundecitrus, this reduces production potential by 35 per cent. Ayers said, "This significant increase in the severity of symptoms in the trees has a direct impact on the increase in the rate of premature fall of the fruit, being the determining factor for the reduction of the harvest in this first re-estimate."
By mid-August, only 25 per cent of the crop had been harvested, compared with 50 per cent a year earlier. The later start was attributed to the high concentration of fruits from the second flowering and the prioritization of harvesting at the optimal stage of maturation for juice quality. This contributed to a higher rate of premature fruit drop, especially in trees affected by greening, combined with limited water availability and milder winter temperatures.
Despite the reduction from the May forecast, if realized, the 2025/26 crop would still represent a year-on-year increase. In 2024/25, total orange production was 230.9 million boxes, the lowest in 30 years due to adverse weather conditions.
Market sources told Expana that the forecast revision has not yet affected orange juice prices, as demand remains subdued. In August, Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) for orange concentrate FCA Europe [Expana code: FJ01] were reported at US$3,750 per metric ton, unchanged from the previous month. Sources described trade as limited, reflecting the seasonal lull and pending tenders from major retailers.
Source: Mintec/Expana