The global mandarin market is expanding and now makes up 28% of the world's citrus trade, ranking second only to oranges. The COVID-19 pandemic led to an unexpected rebound: imports rose by 16% in 2020, reflecting increased consumer interest in health-focused foods.
However, the sector faces significant challenges. Climate change disrupts the balance of sugars and acids in fruit, while pests like greening (HLB) have caused substantial losses in producing countries such as Brazil. Additionally, high logistical costs further reduce the competitiveness of South American supply.
In this context, Peru has gained prominence, becoming South America's top mandarin exporter and the seventh largest in the world. In 2024, it exported a record 237,000 tons valued at $317 million. The Peruvian model emphasizes quality, with certifications like Global G.A.P., traceability, and varietal differentiation.
The commitment to patented late hybrids, Murcott, Tango, Orri, and Nadorcott, has been crucial: They make up 87% of shipments and extend the harvest season from April to November, facilitating market access during periods of lower supply in the northern hemisphere.
The 2025 season (April-August) maintained a positive trend, with exports reaching 220,834 tons and $277 million, representing a 9% increase in volume and a 4% rise in value over the previous year. The average price fell by 5% to $1.25 per kilo, a milder drop than the one experienced by other agro-export products. Part of this growth was due to the recovery of early varieties like Satsuma, Primosole, and Nova.
Nevertheless, structural risks remain. No new plantations have been established since 2020, which could slow growth by 2030, according to ProCitrus. Furthermore, high sea freight rates and competition from Morocco and California pressure profitability, especially for early varieties and small producers.
Opportunities still exist. New patented varieties could help cover the April-May window, and the port of Chancay might improve competitiveness in the Asian market by reducing transit times. Japan is also considering certifying additional Peruvian varieties, which would expand access to that market.
South Africa continues to lead global exports by volume, while Chile and Argentina compete in the regional market. Peru's rapid growth at the start of 2025 is expected to slow toward the end of the season, with an estimated annual increase of 10% to 15%, influenced by the lower availability of late mandarins like W. Murcott.
In conclusion, the Peruvian mandarin has built a competitive model focused on quality and varietal differentiation. The sector's future sustainability depends on revitalizing investment in plantations and securing access to key markets, especially in Asia, to turn challenges into opportunities for sustained growth.
Source: freshfruit.pe