Australia's horticulture sector is forecast to maintain steady growth, supported by domestic demand and exports into Asian markets. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) estimates the gross value of horticulture production at US$11.9 billion (A$18.2 billion) in 2024–25, rising to US$12.4 billion (A$19 billion) in 2025–26.
Fruit and nuts account for about 40% of the value, vegetables 33%, nursery and floriculture 19%, with the remainder in smaller categories.
Production volumes have been underpinned by generally favourable growing conditions, although frost in southern regions and heat in Queensland affected yields. Table grapes, citrus, and almonds dominate exports from Sunraysia, while the Riverland in South Australia remains focused on citrus. Northern Queensland mangoes and lychees, Western Australia's carrots, onions, and citrus, and Tasmania's cherries and berries continue to target Asian markets.
Labour availability has improved through the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, though wage costs remain elevated. Fertiliser and energy prices have eased since 2022 but remain above pre-pandemic levels.
Exports are forecast at US$2.7 billion (A$4.1 billion) in 2024–25, rising to US$2.9 billion (A$4.4 billion) in 2025–26. Fruit is the largest category, led by table grapes, citrus, cherries, and avocados, valued at US$1.2 billion (A$1.8 billion), rising to US$1.25 billion (A$1.9 billion). Nuts are forecast at US$970 million (A$1.5 billion) then US$1.1 billion (A$1.7 billion), with almonds and macadamias dominating. Vegetables contribute about US$282 million (A$436 million), rising to US$288 million (A$445 million).
Australia's almond industry remains the world's second largest, producing 145,000 tons in 2024–25 with exports of 158,000 tons. Output is forecast to ease to 143,000 tons in 2025–26 before recovering as new orchards mature. China takes close to half of all shipments, followed by India.
Table grape production is expected at 230,000 tons in 2024–25 with exports of 135,000 tons, mainly to China, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Citrus exports are forecast at about 190,000 tons for oranges and 105,000 tons for mandarins. Avocado production is expected at 128,000 tons in 2024–25 before rising to 170,000 tons in 2025–26. Berries, including blueberries and strawberries, remain steady with modest export growth into Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Malaysia.
China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia are key markets for fruit, while India is increasingly important for nuts. Shipping reliability has improved since 2022, though biosecurity and water availability in irrigation regions remain challenges.
Source: ANZ