A new climate risk model developed by the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) with consultants EY projects that the United Kingdom could face $3.2 billion (US$2.6 billion) in additional food costs by 2050 if current practices continue. The analysis points to imported horticultural crops, including citrus, bananas, and tomatoes, as being most exposed to climate change impacts.
According to IGD, the findings underline the financial risks for the UK food system and highlight the need for immediate action from businesses and policymakers to safeguard supply and ensure resilience.
Imported fruit and vegetables most exposed
The UK is heavily reliant on imports of fruit and vegetables. IGD's model suggests that horticultural imports face the highest vulnerability to climate risks, with Spain identified as a key sourcing region carrying the largest import-related cost risk. The assessment emphasises that future sourcing and investment strategies must focus on diversification to reduce dependency on high-risk regions.
Transitioning to healthier diets that increase fruit and vegetable consumption may also increase risk if the supply continues to come from already vulnerable sources. IGD notes that this trend underlines the potential for domestic horticulture to expand production capacity.
Modelling long-term risks
The IGD and EY model measures the financial impact of four chronic climate risks: temperature changes, water stress, pollinator loss, and soil erosion. It analyses three scenarios: Net Zero, Delayed Progress to Net Zero, and Business as Usual.
Ten critical commodities were assessed: Bananas, barley, citrus, milk, potatoes, soy, sunflowers, tomatoes, wheat, and white fish. Under the Business as Usual pathway, the UK food system would face additional costs equivalent to 5.9% of annual commodity expenses.
While UK wheat production could benefit from improved growing conditions under net zero pathways, IGD stresses that domestic capacity must be preserved to take advantage of these changes.
Call for immediate action
The report warns that climate change is already reshaping UK food production through extreme weather events, including heatwaves, flooding, and water stress. These factors have disrupted yields and raised costs in recent seasons.
IGD said the assessment is designed to support investment decisions, encourage collaboration across the supply chain, and inform future policy development. It also intends to contribute to an open-access tool that would enable businesses to better identify and respond to climate-related risks.
Sarah Bradbury, Chief Executive at IGD, stated: "With growing volatility and scarce resources, ensuring a reliable food supply will provide a key competitive edge. By collaborating, adapting, and managing risks, the UK can secure a sustainable and robust food future for all. Our climate risk assessment with EY offers clear guidance for businesses to stress-test strategies, concentrate efforts where they matter most, and work with us to achieve a resilient food system."
Source: FreshTalk Daily