Researchers in Australia are assessing how rising temperatures will affect labour supply in horticulture, with a focus on productivity losses and adaptation strategies.
Work led by Katie Ricketts, principal economic research scientist at CSIRO, looks at how extreme heat combined with humidity and solar radiation impacts workers in crops such as berries, grapes, and orchard fruit. Using wet bulb globe temperature modelling, her team estimated that under a +2°C warming scenario, Australian horticulture would need 4% more labour to maintain current output levels.
In Victoria's Yarra Valley, strawberry pickers may need to work an extra 26 minutes per day, potentially pushing labour costs up by nearly 5%. In Queensland's banana plantations, labour requirements could rise by 9%, equal to about 7,400 additional contract workers monthly.
"Farmers are having very major losses because of freeze events, which are not very common. We had seven inches of snow recently in January. So to develop freeze-tolerant varieties, we need this fundamental research," said Qureshi, a graduate assistant at the University of Florida.
Researchers note that productivity drops by 2–3% for every degree above 20°C, with adaptation strategies including shaded rest areas, cooling vests, and shifting work hours. However, these measures involve higher costs, raising concerns that smaller growers may be unable to adopt them.
The findings form part of the National Climate Risk Assessment for the Australian Government and highlight the need for targeted approaches to protect labour productivity in fruit and vegetable production.
To view the full report, click here.
For more information:
Ms Gabrielle Corser
CSIRO
Tel: +61 738335910
www.csiro.au