Turkey's stone fruit sector is facing a marked downturn in marketing year 2025/26 following widespread spring frosts and adverse weather conditions.
Fresh peach and nectarine exports are forecast to decline by 45 per cent to 145,000 tons, while fresh cherry exports are projected to decline by 85 per cent to 10,000 tons. This would move Turkey from the top global exporter of peaches and nectarines in 2024/25 to second place, and from the third-largest cherry exporter to tied for eighth.
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Production impacts have been extensive. Peach and nectarine output is expected at 649,000 tons, a 45 per cent year-on-year decline, while cherry production is forecast down nearly 60 per cent to 400,000 tons. These reductions follow years of growth in stone fruit production, driven by higher-yielding varieties and expanded nectarine acreage.
Export prices for cherries more than doubled in the first three months of the season, but higher domestic prices have kept more fruit in local markets. Fresh cherry consumption is forecast at 98 per cent of production, compared to 93 per cent the previous year. Fresh peach and nectarine consumption is projected at 78 per cent of production, in line with past seasons.
Turkey's main export destinations remain Russia, the European Union, and Iraq. Shipments to all markets fell by more than 50 per cent in the first half of the marketing year, though Russia has remained the priority market. Fresh cherry exports to all three top destinations dropped by roughly 86 per cent in the first quarter of 2025/26. Russia is expected to offset declines with supplies from Uzbekistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan, while EU imports are forecast to fall 60 per cent, given that Turkey accounts for three-quarters of its historical supply.
The global market is also affected. Worldwide fresh cherry production is forecast at 4.6 million tons, down more than 10 per cent, with smaller crops in Turkey, the EU, and the United States outweighing gains in China and Chile. U.S. production is forecast at 403,000 tons, while EU output is set to decline to 644,000 tons.
Global fresh peach and nectarine production is forecast to fall 6 per cent to 23.8 million tons, the first decline in five years. China's production is projected at 17.0 million tons, 600,000 tons lower year-on-year due to drought and frost. EU production is forecast to decline nearly 10 per cent to 3.1 million tons, while Turkey and U.S. volumes are also expected to decrease.
Global exports of peaches and nectarines are forecast to decline by more than 10 per cent to 922,000 tons, with Turkey and the EU accounting for most of the reduction. Russia remains the largest importer, forecast at 310,000 tons, while U.S. imports are projected at the highest level in seven years on increased Chilean shipments.
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