Between 2000 and 2021, global per capita consumption of blueberries rose by 412%, while almonds increased by 128% and avocados by 146%. According to Savills' Spotlight: Global Farmland, this reflects a wider trend of consumers seeking foods linked to wellbeing, including lean proteins, healthy fats, and high-antioxidant products such as berries.
Tree crops, including apples, peaches, avocados, berries, tree nuts, and olives, are increasingly viewed as long-term agricultural assets. Unlike annual crops, tree crops can produce multiple harvests across 25 years or more. They typically generate higher sales per tonne and higher yields per hectare, offering income potential as demand grows.
Savills notes that if global almond consumption were to match U.S. levels, demand could rise by 179% in the next 20 years.
In the UK, tree crops represent a small share of production due to the climate, with apples the dominant crop. In tropical regions, crops such as citrus, bananas, and other fruits are more widespread.
Risks remain for investors and growers. Water availability is central, as most tree crops rely on irrigation in warm and low-rainfall regions. Measures such as soil improvement, balancing water-demanding crops with drought-resistant ones, and focusing on surface water can mitigate this risk. Climate variability is also reshaping production. Milder winters in southern Europe are limiting dormancy in some crops, but creating new opportunities for others. Avocados are now grown further north along the Mediterranean, and almonds are expanding in southern France as the springs warm.
Tree crops require time to reach productivity, usually five to eight years to achieve maximum yield. This exposes growers and investors to price fluctuations during the crop cycle. However, Savills highlights that returns over 20 years tend not to depend on the entry point in the cycle.
Long-term, tree crops remain aligned with global dietary demand. The continued rise in consumption of fruit, vegetables, and nuts is supporting their role as a resilient production option within both traditional farming systems and investment strategies.
Source: Savills