USDA's latest forecasts for 2025 show increases in apples, pears, walnuts, and grapes, while peaches, cranberries, and table olives are expected to be lower. California's table grape output is projected unchanged from last year, while Washington's apple harvest is forecast at a record 8 billion pounds.
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Apples
The 2025 U.S. apple crop is forecast at 11.5 billion pounds, 6 per cent higher year on year. Washington, the largest producer, is expected to supply 8 billion pounds, with Gala, Honeycrisp, and Granny Smith as leading varieties. Fresh exports in 2024/25 reached 1.85 billion pounds, valued at US$1 billion, with Mexico and India among the main buyers. Organic exports also increased, reaching 368 million pounds.
Pears
Pear production is forecast at 625,000 tons, up 22 per cent from last year but still below the three-year average. Washington accounts for 45 per cent of the crop, followed by Oregon and California. More than half of California's crop continues to be processed. Fresh pear exports in 2024/25 dropped to 159 million pounds, the lowest since 1988/89, with Mexico as the leading market.
Grapes
U.S. grape production is forecast at 5.59 million tons in 2025, a 3 per cent increase from 2024, though still below long-term averages. California accounts for 90 per cent of the total supply, with table grapes at 980,000 tons. Fresh grape availability in 2024/25 reached a record 9.56 pounds per capita, supported by record imports from Peru, Chile, and Mexico.
Peaches
The 2025 peach crop is forecast down 45 per cent to 649,000 tons due to weather-related losses in California and the Southeast. This is expected to reduce export availability and increase domestic consumption shares.
Cranberries
Cranberry production is projected at 8.13 million barrels in 2025, down 9 per cent from 2024. Declines are expected in Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Oregon, and New Jersey, with weather stress cited as a factor.
Walnuts
California walnut production is forecast at 720,000 tons in 2025, up 18 per cent from last year. The 2024 crop was reduced by unfavorable weather, but yields are expected to be higher this season.
Overall, while apples, pears, walnuts, and grapes are forecast to rebound or grow, peaches, cranberries, and table olives show lower prospects, shaping a mixed outlook for U.S. fruit and nut growers in 2025.
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