Poland has decided to keep its border with Belarus closed indefinitely following the Russian-Belarusian "Zapad" military exercise. What was initially presented as a temporary precaution is now open-ended, with the government citing "concern for the safety of Polish citizens." Officials stated that traffic will resume only once the border is deemed safe.
The decision affects a corridor that handles 90% of rail freight between China and the European Union, worth about US$27 billion in 2024. Cargo volumes grew 10.6% last year, while the value of goods rose nearly 85%, with the route accounting for 3.7% of EU-China trade. The closure impacts e-commerce companies such as Temu and Shein, as well as Polish logistics firms. PKP Cargo warned that a prolonged shutdown would divert flows south through Kazakhstan, the Caspian and Black Sea, and into Southern Europe or Turkey.
"The complete border closure is a crucial problem, not only for transport and logistics but for the whole economy," said Artur Kalisiak of Transport & Logistics Poland. He added that 10,000 Belarusian drivers employed by Polish firms are stuck on either side of the border. All cargo is currently blocked, including medicine and food shipments. Alternatives via Lithuania or Latvia are possible but slower and more expensive, with no guarantee that those borders will remain open.
The Polish government confirmed that the closure will remain in place until further notice. Compensation has not been decided, with the interior ministry stating that losses will be assessed once the duration of the closure is known.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski in Warsaw earlier this week. "It was made very clear during the talks that in this situation, the logic of trade, which is also beneficial for us, is being replaced by the logic of security," said Polish foreign ministry spokesperson Paweł Wroński. Beijing has urged Poland to ensure stability of the China-Europe Railway Express, which it describes as a "flagship project."
Analysts suggest the closure may align with U.S. pressure on Europe to limit China's role in supporting Russia. Former Polish intelligence head Piotr Krawczyk said Washington is "more than happy to see the routes closed." European governments have not yet reacted publicly.
According to Konrad Popławski of the Center for Eastern Studies, the closure matters most for China's inland provinces that rely on rail. "Still, we are not talking about vast volumes of trade; it is more of a steady trickle important to some industries, but by no means critical overall," he said.
Source: Politico