The global avocado market is facing a turbulent season, with high volumes keeping prices under pressure despite steady consumption. Peru has shipped more than 20,800 containers to Europe by week 38, up over 30% from last year, while South Africa, Kenya, and other summer suppliers added to the glut. Prices in Europe have struggled to recover, with large fruit sometimes trading below €2.50/kg, though smaller sizes remain scarce and fetch over €3.00/kg. Demand eased in mid-summer but picked up again in September as the school year began.
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Attention now shifts to the Mediterranean season, with Israel and Morocco expected to start earlier than usual, followed by Spain in November. North American supply remains strong with Mexico entering its main season, while Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Egypt are expanding or consolidating their export presence. Meanwhile, Colombia and Guatemala are pushing for year-round supply and targeting new markets in Asia and the U.S.
Italy: Stable prices, shifting supply dynamics
In recent weeks, avocados have performed well in the market, boosted by the summer season, which stimulates consumption. At least, this is the experience of a Milan-based wholesaler. Prices have consistently remained at around €3.00–4.00/kg for the Hass variety imported from Peru.
During this period, there has usually also been a good supply of avocados from Israel, but sales are now limited. The reason is political: many wholesalers and retailers in a large city like Milan are of Arab origin, and the current war between Israel and Palestine is also having repercussions on the fruit trade. "In practice, Arab retailers do not want to purchase avocados or other produce from Israel. Avocados gain new market shares every year because they are widely used in salads or as part of aperitifs," the wholesaler concludes.
For a young cooperative in Calabria, which cultivates 50 hectares of organic avocados of various types and has always opted for a short supply chain, the new season is about to begin. In just a few days, the first harvests of early varieties will start. After a very successful previous season, the 2025/26 campaign is expected to be less abundant but similar to last year, thanks to new orchards coming into production. "Over the past five years, demand for Italian organic avocados has grown, and a future stabilisation is expected, which will enable more effective planning of strategies."
As of 23 September 2025, the prices of foreign-sourced Hass avocados vary among North Italy's main wholesale markets. In Turin, Peruvian Hass avocados are priced at €3.80–4.00/kg, while South African Pinkerton avocados are priced at €3.40–3.60/kg. In Cesena, Peruvian Hass avocados are priced at €3.80–4.50/kg. In Verona, Hass avocados in trays are priced between €3.20 and €3.50/kg, while those in cartons are priced between €3.50 and €4.00/kg.
The number of households purchasing avocados has grown rapidly and steadily over the last three years ending in July 2025. According to YouGov data, 35% of Italian households buy avocados. However, households often need to reduce the quantity purchased, which has also declined for this fruit in the past year to nearly 400 grams per purchase. The consumer base for organic avocados is gradually expanding, although it remains relatively limited.
Spain: Production rises with regional shifts
Spain foresees a 20–25% increase in avocado production in the 2025/26 season, thanks to increased rainfall, good flowering, and new plantations coming into production. The Spanish avocado harvest is expected to start between late September and early October, in weeks 40 and 41, with the first green-skinned varieties such as Bacon and Fuerte, among others, although these do not represent a significant share of Spain's avocado supply. The Hass avocado harvest, the most representative variety in terms of volume, will begin from 20 November onwards. At the moment, Spanish companies are mainly working with avocados from Peru, which will continue until weeks 43 and 44 to ensure a smooth transition to Spanish production. It has been a difficult summer, with very low prices.
The drought in recent years in Malaga and along the coast of Granada has slowed the expansion of avocados in these areas and has led to a geographical redistribution. While Malaga has seen its acreage stabilise, other regions such as the Valencian Community, Cadiz, Huelva, and even the Cantabrian coast are experiencing an expansion phase. These are areas with greater water availability or very favourable weather conditions, and avocado projects there continue to grow at a steady pace. In the near future, a transfer of new plantations to areas with more abundant water resources is expected.
Germany: High demand, low supply
The European avocado market has been marked by an exceptionally strong season in Peru, with around 18,000 containers shipped to Europe compared to 13,500 in the previous year. However, volumes are now declining significantly, and Peruvian avocados will remain on the market only until calendar week 42. Smaller sizes (22–30) are in particular high demand and currently in short supply, while larger sizes (12, 14, 16) are somewhat more readily available, reports a German importer. Prices are rising noticeably, driven by a combination of scarce supply and strong demand, which has been further fuelled by extensive summer advertising campaigns across Europe.
Other countries of origin are also gradually reducing shipments: Kenya and Tanzania have noticeably cut back delivery volumes. Whereas 6 to 7 containers were arriving weekly until recently, in calendar week 40, this figure dropped to just one container. Volumes from South Africa are also declining. Attention now turns to Chile as the next major supplier. However, despite slightly larger volumes, a large share of the Chilean harvest is absorbed by the strong domestic market, meaning exports are made only at high fixed prices. Israel will not become active until calendar week 43 via France and Slovenia. Morocco is expected to begin in early November, with Spain following in December. Colombia is expected shortly, but there are quality concerns. Overall, the supply situation for October is expected to remain tight, with scarce quantities and significantly rising prices.
Netherlands: Peruvian volumes remain high
Peruvian avocado exports have remained strong this year. Up to and including week 38, 20,871 containers were shipped to Europe, an increase of more than 30% compared to last year. A Dutch importer noted that while 2024 was an off-year, the overall volumes of both Hass and greenskin avocados this season stand out. Peru is well ahead of the multi-year average, and shipments are expected to remain high in the coming weeks.
Large avocado sizes (10 through 18) are currently under pressure, with prices sometimes falling below €2.50 per kilo. Smaller and mid-sized fruit, supplied mainly from Kenya and Colombia, are scarcer and reaching prices above €3.00 per kilo depending on quality and origin. Kenyan fruit generally trades slightly lower than Colombian fruit.
In Morocco, yields per hectare are reported to be lower than last season, though expanded planted areas are offsetting some of the decline. The Moroccan season appears slightly delayed, creating a smooth transition from the end of Peru's shipments. Spain is forecasting normal to slightly higher volumes this year.
Availability from Colombia is also increasing. From week 42, a significant rise in volumes is expected, which could put pressure on medium and small sizes. Colombian prices remain relatively high due to European demand, but additional arrivals in the EU could shift market conditions.
For now, demand has slowed slightly compared to previous weeks. October is traditionally a strong month for avocados, but shifting dynamics may influence the market.
France: High volumes keep pressure on prices
The avocado market is experiencing a turbulent season, marked by high volumes and prices that have not recovered despite strong consumption at the start of the 2025 season. Peru has returned with volumes up 33% compared to the previous season, adding to supplies from South Africa and Kenya, which have also increased availability. Prices are at levels similar to two years ago and remain below those of last year.
In France, consumption was steady in June but dropped sharply from mid-July as summer holidays began. Demand improved again at the start of the school year, but prices have not returned to last year's levels.
The Peruvian season will finish in mid-October, after which the Mediterranean season will begin. Israel and Morocco are expected to start very early this year, with Morocco arriving just after Israel in late October or early November, more than a month earlier than in previous years. This earlier start is linked to new orchards entering production and the adoption of new cultivation techniques.
North America: Strong volumes from Mexico and steady demand
Avocado supply remains ample and steady. Good volumes are arriving from Mexico, with all sizes available in an even distribution. Mexico is now entering its primary avocado season, and a strong supply is expected to continue through December and into the new year.
Meanwhile, California is 94% harvested, though there is still plenty of fruit available from the state. Overall, supply has increased thanks to volumes from Mexico, California, and Peru. Both California and Peru will conclude their seasons in October.
Light supply is also arriving from Colombia, with shipments to the U.S. expected to increase heading into late October. Demand is also good. Retailers are promoting avocados actively, supported by strong advertising campaigns. Demand typically rises in the fall, boosted by promotions tied to football and autumn holidays.
Pricing remains highly promotable and significantly lower than at the same time last year. Stable and competitive avocado prices are anticipated through the fall.
Mexico: U.S. dominance holds, Europe constrained by standards
Mexico maintains its leadership in the United States thanks to its proximity, although competition from Peru and California is intensifying. The European market is becoming attractive again, but many producers did not renew certifications during the years of lower profitability, which now limits their immediate return.
Export and domestic prices are currently at parity, so sales depend on the recovery of certifications and compliance with Europe's social and environmental requirements.
South Africa: Late-season window boosts avocado exports
South Africa is moving into the second part of its avocado exports, taking advantage of reduced arrivals from Peru. "We expect there to be a big opportunity from arrival weeks 40 to 44, which will be very good for any type of avocado. Everyone is basically taking advantage of this window with Lamb Hass from the north, conventional Hass from KwaZulu-Natal and the Southern Cape, and Maluma from the Western and Southern Cape," says an exporter.
He adds that the main opportunity lies in the EU and UK, where avocado demand has increased significantly. Returns in China and India, however, have not met expectations. "China has been flooded by Peru, so pricing there is not good. And it's the same with India. Because it is still a developing market, India is vulnerable to oversupply. I think they saw that happen this year."
The late-season avocados come from the coastal provinces, while in the north, where the harvest already started in February and March, the trees are now in flower. The flowering in the north looks very promising, pointing towards an "on" year next season, says a Mpumalanga avocado grower.
On the domestic market, the average price is about €1.05/kg (R22/kg), and as volumes tighten, the price is expected to rise.
Kenya: Second avocado cycle underway
The second cycle of the Kenyan avocado season began in September. Exporters are coming off a slow and difficult first cycle, but one that ended on a more encouraging note, with demand and prices higher than last season, according to one exporter.
Avocado production in Kenya is influenced by two main ecological zones: the coffee zones, consisting of warm regions where the season generally runs from February to June, and the tea zones, consisting of cooler regions where the season starts later, from May to August. In recent years, a new major producing region has emerged in the Rift Valley, characterized by large-scale orchards. This region produces fruit from May to March, effectively extending the season throughout the year.
The first cycle of the avocado season was impacted by the ongoing crisis in the Red Sea, compounded by strong competition on the European market. The export campaign to Europe began strongly in 2025, with sustained demand from February to early May. However, from mid-May onwards, exporters experienced a marked slowdown due to the overlap of high volumes from other summer origins. Prolonged market saturation drove prices down. Towards the end of the cycle, demand improved from Europe, GCC countries, Asia, and Turkey as conditions in the Red Sea improved. The second cycle is expected to benefit from challenges faced by competing origins such as Morocco, according to one grower.
The local Kenyan market absorbed much of the crop. With more than 30 large-scale crude avocado oil processing plants, over 70% of Kenyan avocados this year were taken up by domestic oil processors. Prices on the local market increased by around 10% to 20% compared with the previous year.
Morocco: Heat waves cut avocado crop by up to 60%
The Moroccan avocado season usually begins at the end of October for the Hass variety. The country has broken its production and export records for the last two consecutive seasons, reaching 100,000 to 110,000 tons of exports last season, which reduced prices by about 20-25% compared to the previous season.
This season, the industry was impacted by a hot summer and two heat waves in June and August. Fruit abortion was widespread, halving volume expectations. Estimates of losses vary among different producers, especially between exporters and growers. Exporters are accused of minimizing losses, while growers are accused of inflating them. Most estimates point to losses of 40-60% of expected volumes, with final production expected to be 80,000 tons. Losses are partly offset by large orchards that reached maturity this year.
Speculation remains about a possible price increase at the start of the season, as well as growers refraining from harvesting in anticipation of higher prices. This raises questions about whether there will be a delay in the launch of the campaign with consistent volumes and the arrival of peak harvests. A representative of the growers said, "We will not harvest until prices are satisfactory." A representative of the exporters stated that the profiles of growers are diverse, and some cannot afford to miss the window for launching the season in November when prices are favorable before they fall in December, which allows for a steady flow of exports.
Growers are now focusing on obtaining larger fruit sizes to offset the lower volumes and support higher prices. One grower said, "We expect sizes 12 to 20 to account for 70-80% of production. This is entirely possible given the low density of fruit on the trees and the favourable weather conditions at present. This would also be helpful to offset volume losses, as marketing smaller sizes, 22 to 26, is difficult due to fierce competition in this segment."
Rwanda: Season aligned with commercial window
The Rwandan avocado season began in the first week of September. The timing corresponds to a commercial window rather than an agronomic calendar, as the country has potential for year-round production. Exporters focus on the September to March period, when competition from large-volume origins is lower.
Volumes are increasing sharply, with projections of 200-300% growth compared to last season, reaching 10,000 tons in 2025/2026, with a target of 25,000 tons by 2027. One exporter noted that sizes are improving this season: while the average three years ago was 20-26, exporters are now consistently seeing 18-22, with expectations to reach 16-20 in the coming year.
Exporters also report improvements in regional logistics, after years in which the crisis in the Red Sea created difficulties. Current transit times are 37 days to Rotterdam and London, 30 days to Algeciras, and 17 days to Dubai. Exports remain focused on European and Middle Eastern markets.
Tanzania: Season concludes with steady demand
The Tanzanian avocado season ends in September, with the export campaign still ongoing but with limited volumes. Production volumes this season were comparable to last year.
According to one exporter, demand for Tanzanian avocados has been satisfactory and diversified. Traditional markets in Europe and the Middle East maintained strong demand, while exports to India, a relatively new market, have been steady. Demand in Europe and India has focused mainly on medium and large Hass avocados, while green-skinned avocados remain preferred in the Middle East.
A new entrant in the sector, Tanzania, is on track to become a reliable alternative origin, the exporter noted.
Egypt: Expanding avocado cultivation for export
Egypt, currently behind other origins in the Middle East, East Africa, and North Africa, is working to position itself as a major avocado exporter within five to seven years. The country's sub-tropical climate supports production, with fruit tending toward smaller sizes.
At present, Egyptian avocados are mainly supplied to local and Arab markets, but gradual entry into European markets has begun. According to one grower, Egypt's competitive production costs, logistical advantages, and strong European demand could support its ability to compete effectively.
Peru: Prices recover after mid-season oversupply
The oversupply between May and July put pressure on prices in Europe, which fell to €5–6 per box. Prices later recovered to €9–10 and could reach €12–13 by the end of the season. Companies adjusted shipments and prioritised the final stage of the campaign.
The country is seeking to extend the season and strengthen its presence in Asia, with Japan as the main market and new opportunities in Korea, Singapore, Thailand, and China.
Colombia: Expanding supply and targeting new markets
Colombia is consolidating its 52-week supply with two production peaks, with some companies reaching double the volume of the previous year. Around 80% of exports go to Europe and 20% to the United States, although competition with Mexico remains challenging.
The country is focusing on quality, with dry matter levels above 23%, despite internal logistical challenges. Its goal is to strengthen supermarket programs in Europe and secure access to the Chinese market.
Guatemala: Strengthening Europe and targeting Asia
Guatemala is moving forward with the USDA protocol to enter the U.S. market, while at the same time strengthening its presence in Europe, where it already exports up to 600 containers a year. The fruit is distinguished by its fat profile and buttery texture, with a season running from September to March that complements Peru's supply window.
The country projects 20% growth in 2025, plans to explore markets in Japan and Korea, and is working on new regional agreements with Chile and Argentina.
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