Italy closed its Valencia orange season in June with stable sales and prices near €1/kg, but the outlook for the new campaign points to a possible 20–30% decline in Tarocco blood orange production. Spain closed its orange season in July with lower production and quality issues from heavy rainfall, while demand stayed firm on reduced Egyptian supply. In Puglia, spring weather and water scarcity cut overall yields by about 30%, adding pressure to supply.
In the Netherlands, a strong South African harvest has saturated the market, with smaller sizes performing better while medium fruit faces price pressure. Germany reports stabilising sales after late seasonal transitions, with Zimbabwean oranges gradually gaining market share.
© Viola van den Hoven-Katsman | FreshPlaza.com
France is seeing stable sales supported by the good quality of South African oranges, though operators remain cautious on pricing. In North America, tariffs have disrupted trade flows, but prices have strengthened, with California and Florida preparing for the new season.
South Africa has exported record volumes, already surpassing last year by millions of cartons, while Egypt is reducing fresh exports as processing demand grows. Morocco continues to face severe supply losses due to drought, and India is dealing with high import costs and weaker demand under heavy monsoon rains.
Italy: End of orange season and new campaign outlook
As usual, the Italian Valencia orange campaign ended in June. "It was a positive season," said a company operating in Italy and Spain. "Our storage volumes are usually small, so we were able to finish the season with regular sales and satisfactory prices. The market responded well, but the prolonged presence of imported Egyptian oranges complicated the overall picture, taking up much more space than expected. We thought that prices could rise further. Instead, sales fell in June, and prices stabilised at around €1/kg. Ultimately, however, stocks were absorbed, leaving room for South African supplies, which found a relatively free market, at least in Italy."
The crucial moment will come in October when the first shipments of oranges from Spain, Italy, and Greece arrive and compete with the last supplies from the Southern Hemisphere. "If the two seasons overlap, we could see a scenario similar to last year, with a saturated market and downward pressure on prices. That's why the goal is to sell as much product as possible by the end of October." Help could come from Italian and European consumers, who traditionally prefer domestic products once they become available.
Looking ahead to the new Italian season, the starting price for the first navel oranges is expected to remain high, confirming that a low-price market is nearly impossible to imagine today. "The Navel orange campaign should see quantities similar to last year's. For blood oranges, particularly the Tarocco variety, production is expected to drop by 20–30%. However, these figures are still to be confirmed." Quality, however, looks very promising. The water crisis that affected previous years has been overcome, and the plants are showing regular, healthy growth, especially in Sicily.
An agricultural entrepreneur from Puglia adds, "Just as there has been a reduction in clementine yields, the situation is no different for oranges. Spring weather events have had a significant impact on the development of flowers and buds, which has substantially affected production, particularly in areas experiencing water scarcity. The overall decline is around 30%, but it is significantly higher in orange groves affected by late frost. There is already excitement over the rush to purchase batches, driven by the decrease in quantities available on the market."
Spain: Season ends earlier with lower production
The orange campaign ended in July with smaller production than initially expected and with higher, more stable demand in spring. This was partly due to cooler temperatures, limited supply from Egypt, and delays in the arrival of stone fruit. Production fell below expectations in both the Valencian Community and Andalusia, not only for Valencia oranges but also for late second-season Navel varieties. Persistent rainfall during the season affected the quality of both oranges and mandarins, resulting in more damage and a reduced marketable supply. As a result, the season ended earlier than usual.
Fruit prices at origin were higher in the second part of the season, and this was also reflected in the markets, where consumption lasted longer than normal due to colder, rainier weather, which also delayed the arrival of stone fruit. Imports from Egypt fell considerably compared to last year because exporters there did not receive government subsidies. At the same time, the citrus juice processing industry expanded further, becoming the most profitable option for many growers.
In August and the first week of September, sales of South African oranges were slow, though they began to recover with the end of the school holidays. Imported oranges continue to show high prices. Early estimates for the 2025/2026 season suggest a harvest similar to last year overall, except in Andalusia, where production is expected to be lower, though fruit sizes are projected to be larger. The first Spanish Navelina oranges are expected at the end of October.
Netherlands: South African harvest floods the market
The orange market is currently facing an oversupply. "It's all hands on deck," says a Dutch importer. "South Africa clearly had an exceptionally good harvest this year, resulting in a huge volume of fruit being exported, not only to Europe but also to the U.S., the Middle East, the Far East, and Russia. Initially, it was expected that exports to the U.S. would decrease, but statistics show that the U.S. has received significantly more fruit. Expectations from South Africa were high, especially since the seasons in Spain and Egypt were supposed to end earlier, but instead, we are dealing with a saturated market. We do see a notable difference in the sizes of the fruit being supplied. Prices and turnover for the smaller sizes – which are used, among other things, in juicing machines – are good, and that market is expected to remain fairly stable. However, the market for medium-sized fruit is under pressure, and we really need promotions to work through the volume."
Germany: Sales improve as availability stabilises
A wide range of varieties is currently available in the orange sector. Overall, there are too many large sizes, which is reflected in the market situation. In addition, sales are stagnating, reports one importer. Small juice oranges of the Valencia and Midknight varieties have been somewhat scarce in recent weeks, although the situation is gradually improving. Sales in this segment are also much better, according to the report.
In the orange sector, the seasonal transition from Egypt to South Africa did not take place until the second half of July this year, which is unusually late. Zimbabwean oranges also appear to be gaining importance on the German market. "Compared to South Africa, orange cultivation in Zimbabwe is smaller in terms of area. Nevertheless, we have already been able to increase our share to around one third of the total volume in the first four years, and the trend continues to rise slightly," outlines an importer.
France: Fruit quality supports stable sales
South African oranges are currently available on the French market. "The 2025 season is truly excellent in terms of quality: the fruit is very sweet and juicy, with thin skin, large in size, and available in traditional volumes. This year contrasts with the previous one, when unpredictable weather conditions affected quality, leading to significant sorting when pallets arrived as the fruit ripened too quickly," says one operator.
On the market side, sales are flowing smoothly, and prices are fairly normal for the period. "Prices are no better or worse than in other years. We are careful not to set them too high in order to maintain sales momentum, because a difference of €0.10–0.15 can cut sales, which we want to avoid at all costs," he continues.
From mid-October, Spain will take over. It is still too early to say with certainty, but it seems the season will bring significant volumes, though not necessarily large sizes. Weather events could, however, change the situation.
North America: Tariffs impact trade while prices strengthen
California's Valencia orange season is wrapping up early, likely within the next few weeks. At the same time, Chilean navel oranges are arriving, a flow expected to continue until the end of October. Orange demand has been good overall, though import tariffs have affected marketing prices and supply on the East Coast. The window for South African citrus arrivals earlier this summer was shorter, as shippers advanced volumes ahead of tariffs being imposed.
In the U.S., growers also welcomed the recent news that the Canadian government lifted its retaliatory pricing on U.S. products, including oranges and orange juice, as of September 1. Meanwhile, prices are strengthening. Levels that were in the equivalent of €17–23 per carton are now approaching around €28.
Looking ahead, later this month, Florida is expected to begin its crop, with growers anticipating higher volumes and improved quality compared to last year, when Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused significant losses. California's navel orange season will also start in October as Chilean imports begin to wind down.
South Africa: Exports surge as global markets absorb excess fruit
By week 37, South Africa had shipped 29.4 million 15 kg cartons of navels, already 4 million cartons more than the final figure for 2024.
For Valencias, which are harvested later than navels, 44.4 million cartons have been shipped so far, and the export estimate is just short of 60 million cartons. This will bring South Africa to 6 million more navel cartons and 10 million more Valencia cartons than last year.
It was initially thought that Egypt's Valencia season would end very early, but instead it lingered on until last month. Combined with oranges and soft citrus no longer heading to the U.S., where they suddenly became 30% more expensive, South African oranges have arrived in overwhelming numbers in other markets.
In the Middle East, India, and Bangladesh, orange prices are already at rock bottom, says a South African exporter, as the Middle East acts as a "dumping ground" in years like this. Exports to Russia have also doubled. The sliding scale levy applied by the EU on Southern Hemisphere oranges from 15 October has become negligible, dropping from 16% to 1.6% this year. It will disappear entirely in the future.
Egypt: Processing growth reduces exports
The next Egyptian orange season will begin in early December, with the official date to be set by the Agricultural Export Board. The coming season will bring major changes in both export volumes of fresh oranges and pricing. This shift had already started at the end of the previous season. As widely reported, the rapid development of the country's processing industry, particularly in orange concentrate production, has dramatically reduced exportable volumes. Estimates of consumption by these factories vary, pending official figures, but this year it is thought to be between 600,000 and 1 million tonnes, with several industry sources projecting it could soon reach 2 million tonnes annually as more concentrate factories enter the sector. One exporter notes: "Gone are the days when Egyptian oranges were undervalued on international markets."
This change also coincides with improved logistical conditions in the Red Sea, which should support better market balance and allow Egyptian oranges to return to Asian markets.
It remains uncertain whether overall acreage and volumes will increase next season, although many exporters have announced expansions of their production or even their packing facilities. Fruit sizes also remain a concern, as the problem of small sizes continues to affect production. One Egyptian exporter stated that the limited volumes available last season already pushed buyers in markets that traditionally prefer larger sizes to shift toward medium sizes. Other exporters reported that they had already signed contracts for their larger sizes for next season, three months ahead of the harvest.
Morocco: Drought slashes acreage, recovery expected to take years
In Morocco, the orange supply has been drastically reduced in recent seasons due to drought. Maroc Late oranges are still present on the European market, but growers are being forced to uproot some orchards to preserve others. Current acreage is only 50% or less compared to the average season before the drought. One Moroccan grower estimates it will take at least three to four years for production to return to normal volumes and benefit from the gap in the international market, provided rainfall improves.
India: Higher costs and heavy rains dampen imports
India's orange imports cover several supply windows, traditionally led by Egyptian fruit, despite notable price increases of more than 50% per box this year. South Africa is the second-largest source, known for Valencias and Navels shipped between June and October. This year, prices rose by the equivalent of €1.40–1.90 per box, making South African volumes more difficult to sustain.
Australian Navels, which benefit from a lower import duty, are gaining ground, while Chinese Valencias and hybrids are emerging as value alternatives. Overall demand has softened this year due to heavy monsoon rains. The arrival of domestic Nagpur oranges in October is expected to gradually reduce import volumes.
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